Evgeny Goryunov, Head of the Monetary Policy Department at the Gaidar Institute, commented for Forbes on the Ministry of Economic Development’s revision of its macroeconomic forecast and the deterioration in expectations for investment and GDP growth.
According to the expert, the forecast update is linked to the release of new macroeconomic statistics, which turned out to be weaker than expected. He noted that the ministry had previously adjusted its estimates downward as new data became available.
“The Ministry’s forecasts often turn out to be more optimistic than the actual economic dynamics, so they then have to be brought closer to reality. “After the latest revision, the ministry’s forecast has become even more conservative than the Bank of Russia’s forecast,” Evgeny Goryunov noted.
The economist pointed out that investment activity continues to be influenced by several factors at once—high interest rates, a rising tax burden, weak demand, and economic uncertainty.
“It is difficult to name a factor right now that would significantly support investment. Perhaps the only thing having a positive impact, at least temporarily, is relatively high oil prices,” explained Evgeny Goryunov.
In his assessment, in the medium term, the economy is likely to return to moderate growth rates: gross capital formation will increase by approximately 1% per year, and GDP growth may stabilize in the range of 1–1.5%.