The market is quietly reacting to new restrictions — the 18th package of sanctions against Russia, which, in particular, reduced the price ceiling for Russian oil from $60 to $47.6 per barrel. Dmitry Kuznetsov, Researcher at the International Trade Department, and Olga Ponomaryova, Expert at the Economic Policy Foundation, commented for TASS that the effectiveness of such a measure is insignificant.
"The effectiveness of the oil price ceiling has long been criticized by numerous experts; in fact, this mechanism is almost ineffective. A ban on imports of oil products from Russian oil is also seen as not too big a problem," Dmitry Kuznetsov told TASS.
The expert noted that oil and petroleum products have the feature of relatively easily redirectable goods, which, although with a possible insignificant discount and time costs for reorientation, will find their buyer. He also adds: “The rather restrained market reaction - 1-1.5% growth in stock exchange quotations - shows that traders do not expect significant supply problems on the market yet.”
Olga Ponomaryova emphasized the significant reduction of the price ceiling but also expressed doubts about its effectiveness. "Trade statistics with key consumers of Russian oil - China and India - show that the restrictions were not observed in 2023-2024. Especially since now the reduced price ceiling is introduced only by the EU and is not yet supported by the US. The EU is also going to impose secondary sanctions on suppliers of oil products that use Russian oil in their refining. Here again, there are doubts about the possibility of tracking and implementation of such a measure," she said.