Vera Barinova, a Senior Researcher at the Gaidar Institute explained in a comment for Forbes why the assessment of the business environment in Russia has fallen to its lowest level in the past year.
According to the expert, changes in tax policy played a key role. Since 2026, the VAT rate has risen from 20% to 22%, while at the same time, the income threshold for applying the simplified (STS) and patent (PTS) taxation systems has been gradually reduced—from Rb60 mn to Rb20 mn. This significantly expanded the pool of companies required to pay VAT.
The abolition of the preferential 15% insurance contribution rate on payments exceeding the minimum wage for most small and medium-sized enterprises placed an additional burden on businesses. As a result, costs rose, particularly for companies with low profitability operating in regions with lower wage levels.
Another factor was the overall increase in the tax burden, which is holding back entrepreneurial activity.
“Our research shows that in regions where there were no simplified tax system (STS) incentives, the density of small businesses was lower,” emphasized Vera Barinova.
Taken together, these changes affected most SMEs—both directly and indirectly, through increased costs for their business partners—which ultimately impacted the overall business climate.