The director of the Center for Evidence-Based Expertise Ekaterina Papchenkova and her deputy Lora Nakoryakova assessed the growth trends of the Russian e-commerce market in comments for Kommersant.
According to data from the Gaidar Institute, between 2020 and 2025, the outlets operated by the largest e-commerce platforms—Ozon, Wildberries, and Yandex.Market—grew fourfold. Active growth continued into 2025, largely thanks to the entrepreneurs themselves: as early as 2024, one in three franchise outlets owners planned to open a new location, while no more than 5% of market participants reported downsizing their businesses.
“Growth is driven not only by the geographic expansion of marketplaces but also by entrepreneurs’ scaling strategies,” noted Laura Nakoryakova.
At the same time, experts are noting signs of a slowdown: revenue growth for the outlets peaked in 2025, and a decline in growth rates is expected in 2026–2027. Currently, the average annual turnover per outlet is approximately Rb1.45 mn, with each owner operating more than three locations.
Government regulation is having an additional impact on the market. Specifically, the Federal Antimonopoly Service has required marketplaces to equalize commissions for Russian and foreign sellers starting from April 2026.
Experts emphasize that the new regulations alone do not solve the problem of disparities in working conditions, but they do reflect the government’s overall policy of leveling the playing field.
“Creating discriminatory conditions is prohibited, and the Federal Antimonopoly Service is already actively analyzing marketplace practices,” explained Ekaterina Papchenkova.
According to experts, the online retail market will continue to grow, but not as rapidly as before. On the one hand, marketplaces will continue to open new outlets and expand. On the other hand, the government will introduce more and more rules and restrictions.