Evgeny Goryunov, Head of the Monetary Policy Laboratory at the Gaidar Institute, and Vladimir Sedalishchev, Expert at the Economic Policy Foundation, assessed the main risks to the Russian economy in 2026 in comments to RBC, paying particular attention to the prospects of a possible recession and the dynamics of foreign trade.
Evgeny Goryunov admitted the possibility of a recession but described its likely scale as limited. “If a recession occurs in 2026, it will be shallow,” the expert said. At the same time, he made an important caveat, noting that such a scenario is only possible in the absence of significant shocks, such as a drop in Brent oil prices to $40-50 per barrel.
Commenting on the trajectory of the Bank of Russia's key rate, Evgeny Goryunov suggested that in a pessimistic scenario, it could reach 12-13%, and in an optimistic scenario, it could fall to 8-10%.
Vladimir Sedalishchev, in turn, assessed the prospects for foreign trade. In his opinion, no drastic changes are expected in this area in 2026. “Exports, primarily of raw materials, may remain at the 2025 level or grow slightly due to supplies to Asia and the Middle East, but they will be held back by sanctions, logistics, and global commodity prices,” he noted. At the same time, according to the expert, imports are likely to continue to increase, primarily due to the economy's need for equipment and components, as well as the development of parallel supplies.