Evgeny Goryunov, Head of Monetary Policy Department at the Gaidar Institute, explained in a comment for RBC why the current income dynamics pose a risk to the economy.
According to Rosstat data, real income growth slowed in Q3 2025, however it still outpaced labor productivity growth due to a labor shortage.
Evgeny Goryunov noted that the key problem lies in the different velocity of two processes. The expert explained: “Significant productivity growth across the entire economy is a process whose results are visible over a five- to ten-year horizon. At the same time, wage growth caused by an overheated labor market is a very visible and rapid process that directly contributes to accelerating inflation.”
According to the economist, this situation creates an imbalance. “In this sense, wage growth in an economy teetering on the brink of recession is an extremely unpleasant combination,” added Evgeny Goryunov.