In a commentary for Izvestia, Evgeny Goryunov, Head of Monetary Policy Department at the Gaidar Institute, spoke on the impact of the upcoming VAT increase on inflation, suggesting that its effect will be more prolonged than predicted by the Bank of Russia.
Unlike the Central Bank, which expects the main effect to be felt in January 2026, Evgeny Goryunov believes that the impact will be spread over a longer period. “The effect of the VAT increase is more likely to be spread over the entire first quarter of 2026,” the expert said.
He also predicts the impact of the fiscal innovation on consumer sentiment: “The population's inflation expectations will rise briefly and then gradually decline.”
At the same time, the expert generally agrees with the regulator's quantitative assessment. Evgeny Goryunov believes that the contribution of the VAT factor to inflation at the end of 2026 will be 0.5-0.8 percentage points.