Evgeny Goryunov, Head of the Monetary Policy Department at the Gaidar Institute, commented for RBC on data regarding the record growth of Russian wages in dollar terms, noting that the persistent labor shortage remains the key factor.
The average gross monthly wage in Russia in Q1 2026 was Rb107,000 or about $1,368 at the Bank of Russia’s average exchange rate. According to RBC’s calculations, the annual growth rate hit 38%, marking the highest first-quarter result in the past 18 years.
Commenting on this trend, Evgeny Goryunov noted that comparisons with 2016–2017 are not entirely accurate, since at that time wages in dollar terms were at a local low. According to him, income growth in dollar terms remains part of a long-term trend that was only temporarily interrupted in 2022.
“The labor market in Russia remains overheated for now, hence the wage growth. Wages have been rising in dollar terms since 2024 and in real terms since 2023. I wouldn’t expect this trend to reverse before late fall 2026,” noted Evgeny Goryunov.