Evgeny Goryunov, Head of Monetary Policy Department at the Gaidar Institute, assessed the impact of escalation of the conflict in the Middle East on the Russian economy in a commentary for Izvestia. Contrary to widespread expectations of rising inflation due to global instability, the expert suggested that current events could work in favor of Russian ruble and contribute to a slowdown in price growth.
According to Evgeniy Goryunov, strengthening of the national currency amid rising oil and gas revenues will be the decisive factor in this situation. High oil prices traditionally resulted in a stronger ruble, making imports cheaper and thereby curbing domestic inflation.
"More likely, the conflict in Iran could contribute to lower inflation by strengthening the ruble exchange rate. Russia is already selling oil at higher prices and receiving higher foreign currency earnings. While analysts previously expected a decline in oil prices (this scenario was considered in early 2026), which could result in more expensive imports and higher inflation, now there is no such certainty. The logic here is straightforward: higher oil prices, a stronger ruble, cheaper imports, lower inflation," the expert explained.
However, Evgeniy Goryunov noted that the final result will largely depend on the response of the Ministry of Finance, which so far has demonstrated its intention to adhere to a conservative budget policy.
"However, if amid rising oil and gas revenues, a decision is made to soften this line and increase spending, inflationary pressure could intensify. While this scenario appears less likely at the moment, the Ministry of Finance traditionally adheres to a fairly conservative policy, but it cannot be completely excluded," the expert explained.