Evgeny Goryunov on the prospects of a decrease in the key rate

RBC has presented the forecast of Evgeny Goryunov, Head of the Monetary Policy Department at the Gaidar Institute, regarding the expected decision of the RF Central Bank on the key rate at the upcoming meeting.

According to Evgeny Goryunov, the RF Central Bank will start cutting the key rate only in case of a clear detection of sustainable trends towards lower inflation. However, in his opinion, such trends, if they emerge, are likely to form not earlier than April-May.

The RF Central Bank’s tough policy through slowing down of aggregate demand has a restraining effect on inflation, but, at the same time, demand accelerates budget expenditures. In December, the industry continued its growth driven by increased output in sectors related to the military-industrial complex and contributed to further price increases. Currently, pro-inflationary and disinflationary factors are balancing each other. Thus, the expert assumes that on February 14, the RF Central Bank will most likely decide to keep the key rate at the current level of 21%.

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Monday, 10.02.2025