Evgeny Goryunov, Head of Monetary Policy Department at the Gaidar Institute, commented for RBC on Russia's balance of payments situation and the outlook for the ruble exchange rate.
The expert noted a change in the key driver: now the situation is determined not so much by the cost of oil as by domestic demand for currency. "Previous years have taught us to think of the price of oil as the main factor in the exchange rate. But now, it seems, a different logic is at work," the expert explained, adding that the decline in oil prices does indeed reduce the supply of currency.
According to him, two factors are preventing the ruble from collapsing in the current conditions: the Central Bank's tight monetary policy and administrative restrictions. “The ruble is being strengthened exclusively by the Central Bank's high interest rate, which allows for high returns in rubles, and restrictions on the purchase of foreign assets,” emphasized Evgeny Goryunov.
Despite the current stability, fundamental factors will prevail in the long term. The expert gave a cautious forecast for the exchange rate, suggesting that the weakening will be gradual and will not exceed the specified values in the absence of external shocks. “In the most likely scenario, if there are no significant shocks, the ruble will still weaken, but it will be a moderate weakening, in the range of 80-85 rubles per dollar by the end of the year,” Evgeny Goryunov predicted.