The Ministry of Finance has extended the suspension of foreign exchange market operations under the budget rule until July 1, 2026 due to high uncertainty surrounding the external economic situation. This view was expressed in a comment for RBC by Evgeny Goryunov, Head of the Monetary Policy Department at the Gaidar Institute.
According to the expert, the ministry is awaiting greater clarity regarding the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and military actions in Iran, which directly influence oil price dynamics. It is precisely the oil market situation that remains the key factor in decision-making.
Evgeny Goryunov projected that in the coming months, the ruble exchange rate will remain in the range of 78–82 rubles per dollar. However, the expert identified a potential decline in oil prices as the main risk: if the conflict in the Middle East de-escalates, the dollar could rise above 88 rubles by the end of the first half of the year.