Evgeny Goryunov, Head of Monetary Policy Department at the Gaidar Institute, commented for RBC on the latest GDP growth data, which shows zero growth in August.
Taking into account seasonally adjusted data, the Russian economy is in a state of stagnation, the expert noted. "GDP growth figures in annual terms are not representative when the pace of economic growth is changing rapidly. This data reflect changes in output over the past 12 months, i.e., they provide a retrospective picture. However, the current situation is reflected in growth estimates for the last few months or the last quarter, adjusted for seasonal factors," explained Evgeny Goryunov.
The expert gave a more cautious forecast than official agencies for the period until the end of this year. “Given that output grew by 1% year-on-year in January-August and that current growth has now virtually stalled, we can expect GDP growth of 0.8-0.9% for the year as a whole,” he estimated.
Evgeny Goryunov also noted that despite disinflationary factors such as balancing on the brink of recession and signs of stabilization in the labor market, the Central Bank sees risks of accelerating inflation. “Most likely, the rate will decline more slowly than the market expected in the summer, and the Central Bank may pause in its policy easing,” the expert concluded.