The Bank of Russia should not rush to ease monetary policy just yet, despite calls to cut the key rate. This opinion RBC was expressed by Evgeny Goryunov, Head of the Monetary Policy Department at the Gaidar Institute.
According to the expert, the high key rate has not yet led to a noticeable decline in demand for loans. Lending volumes continue to grow, indicating that the economy is still actively drawing on borrowed funds.
Evgeny Goryunov also believes that inflation may accelerate in the coming months due to the situation on the fuel market. Under such conditions, in his view, the Bank of Russia will have grounds to refrain from further easing monetary policy.
The expert warned that a rapid rate cut could have only a short-term effect.
“A sharp easing of monetary policy could indeed briefly accelerate economic growth and investment. But then the economy risks facing high inflation. The experience of other countries shows that cheap credit alone does not ensure sustainable growth if structural problems, such as labor shortages and high uncertainty, persist,” emphasized Evgeny Goryunov.