Evgeniy Goryunov, Head of the Monetary Policy Department at the Gaidar Institute, commented for Rossiyskaya Gazeta on the Bank of Russia's decision to lower the key rate to 15.5% per annum at its meeting on February 13, 2026, which was unexpected for most analysts.
According to the expert, the reasons for maintaining the rate were solid: “In January, a noticeable acceleration in inflation was recorded, and although this acceleration is temporary (it is mainly due to the pass-through of the VAT increase into prices), in such situations the Central Bank often prefers to take a cautious stance, believing that easing policy could increase inflation expectations.
Moreover, the fact that the Central Bank noted the current presence of persistent inflationary pressure and elevated inflation expectations in its latest February article, “What the Trends Say,” also indicated that the rate would remain unchanged.
As Evgeniy Goryunov explained, "this time, the Russian regulator decided to focus more on inflation indicators cleared from the impact of one-time and seasonal factors, and these indicators prove that inflation is gradually approaching 4%."
"It should be noted that today's decision to cut the rate makes a decision to pause monetary policy easing at the next meeting more likely," the expert predicted.