Evgeny Goryunov, Head of Monetary Policy Department at the Gaidar Institute, spoke to Finam on the prospects of inflation in Russia and future solutions on the key rate.
According to the expert, instead of the expected seasonal slowdown in price growth, the Russian economy faced escalation of inflationary factors this summer. "Rising fuel prices, weakening ruble, expected tariff indexation, and relatively high rate of output growth (1.3% year-on-year based on Q2 results) are all pushing inflation from the current 6.0% (year-on-year based on results of July) toward 7% (year-on-year) by the end of the year," noted Evgeniy Goryunov.
The expert believes that strengthening price pressure increases the chance of a interruption in monetary policy easing. Currently, he estimates that inflation in 2026 could be in the range of 6.5–7.5%.
"Accordingly, a pause scenario becomes more likely in the monetary policy easing. I believe there will be no rate hike in September (if there are no significant shocks), and it is more likely that the rate will remain at 14%," says Evgeniy Goryunov.
Thus, the future dynamics of inflation will depend on a combination of fuel costs, the exchange rate of the ruble, changes in regulated tariffs and the pace of economic activity. As current trends continue, the Bank of Russia, according to the expert, can take a pause in lowering the key rate to assess the sustainability of inflation risks.