Evgeny Goryunov, Head of Monetary Policy Department at the Gaidar Institute, commented for RBC why the current income dynamics pose a risk to the economy.
on total inflation for 2025 and explained the rationale behind the RF Central Bank actions. He believes that the expected outcome demonstrates successful implementation of a deliberate strategy by the regulator.The expert agreed with the forecast that annual inflation will be below 6%. "I believe that inflation by the end of 2025 will be around 5.7-5.8%. This result can be considered a relative success of monetary policy," stated Evgeniy Goryunov.
He explained that the Central Bank deliberately rejected the "hard landing" scenario (a rapid decline in inflation at the cost of a deep recession) in favor of a more moderate option. "Our regulator chose a moderately conservative option, which is reasonable, given that our inflation is inert and would hardly have been able to quickly suppress it with a rate of 25-28% (if a hard landing had been chosen)," the expert emphasized.