Evgeny Goryunov, Head of Monetary Policy Department at the Gaidar Institute, assessed in a commentary for the RBC a possible path of the key rate and the regulator's response to the current economic agenda.
Earlier, Vladimir Putin, President of Russia, reported that GDP fell by 1.8% in January-February and noted the expectation of specific proposals to restore economic growth, support businesses, and improve the quality of employment. Meanwhile, the Bank of Russia forecasted GDP growth of 1.6% at Q1 end.
According to Evgeniy Goryunov, the regulator is unlikely to rapidly reduce the key rate by 75–100 b.p. at once under the influence of political statements.
"I believe the Central Bank will not move to an accelerated rate cut (by 75 or 100 b.p.) under the influence of Vladimir Putin's speech. For now, I believe, the Central Bank enjoys the freedom to make decisions at its own discretion, and as long as it is allowed, its approach to monetary policy will be conservative," noted Evgeniy Goryunov.
The economist also admitted that the most likely scenario is a 50 b.p. rate cut, while the option of a pause in monetary policy easing, in his opinion, is not currently considered the main one.