The Russian economy shows signs of relative stabilization in mid-2026, but a significant acceleration in growth is not expected before the end of the year. Evgeny Goryunov, Head of Monetary Policy Department at the Gaidar Institute, explained why the households' financial anxiety is unlikely to be a direct cause of a decline in consumer demand. Evgeny Goryunov, Head of Monetary Policy Department at the Gaidar Institute, spoke to Finam on the prospects of inflation in Russia and future solutions on the key rate.
Previously, the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences noted signs of relative stabilization in the Russian economy mid-year. According to researchers, output in the civilian sector is stabilizing, and the economy as a whole has recovered from the decline recorded in Q1 2026. Moreover, the recovery in consumer demand is occurring amid growing financial anxiety among households and a slight improvement in the external economic situation.
According to Evgeniy Goryunov, it is not worth directly linking changes in consumer behavior with the mood of households.
"I think, the direct link between public sentiment and economic performance is very weak or does not exist. I am not aware of any studies that convincingly, using real data, prove the hypothesis that public sentiment is a leading indicator of economic activity. In this sense, I do not think a decline in sentiment will directly result in a contraction in consumer demand," the expert noted.
Evgeniy Goryunov thinks that deeper factors can at the same time influence public sentiment and economic activity. In particular, uncertainty about the future developments reduces businesses' willingness to invest.
"Rather, it can be said that weakening hope for a quick end to active military action and a de-escalation of the conflict is simultaneously affecting public sentiment, increasing frustration, and is also a factor in reducing investment, since investment is unprofitable in such uncertain conditions," he explained.
At the same time, the economist does not expect a significant recovery in the Russian economy until the end of 2026. He estimates that stagnation will persist and deepen in the coming months.