Nezavisimaya Gazeta reviewed the latest issue of Monitoring of Russia’s Economic Outlook (No. 13(195), July 2025), prepared by Ekaterina Galeeva, Researcher at the Gaidar Institute’s Industrial Organization and Infrastructure Economics Department. The study provides an overview of the oil market in Q2 2025. The expert commented on the situation in the global crude oil market and possible consequences for Russia, based on the research findings.
Ekaterina Galeeva highlighted several key factors determining oil price dynamics. “Sustained downward pressure on oil prices in 2025–2026 will be exerted by a significant increase in global oil reserves,” the expert noted. She also emphasized that "the growth in global oil production is due to increased production by OPEC+ countries, as well as growth in production in the US, Brazil, Canada, and Guyana. According to forecasts, production in
Ekaterina Galeeva also assessed the prospects for demand: "Countries in Asia, the Middle East, and Africa will be the main sources of additional demand growth (+22.4 mn bpd from 2024 to 2050): India — by 8.2 mn bpd; China — 1.8 mn bpd — and a significant part of this growth will occur in the medium term (growth is slowing due to the transition to electric vehicles and LNG)."
In the context of the impact of sanctions on the Russian oil industry, the expert stated: "The US is considering possible protective tariffs of 100 or 500% on Russia’s key trading partners. If such duties are introduced, the main costs will be borne by China, India (the largest importer of Russian oil) and Turkey (through which territory
Thus, the combined impact of various factors on the oil market, including increased production, changes in demand structure, and geopolitical risks, poses challenges for the Russian economy.