Dmitry Kuznetsov, Researcher of the International Trade Department at the Gaidar Institute, commented for RIA Novosti on the possible consequences of the conflict escalation in the Middle East for global markets. He believes that any risks to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a rise in energy prices and put additional pressure on petrochemical and fertilizer sectors.
As Dmitry Kuznetsov noted, the Strait is a key artery for exports from major oil and gas market countries. "Any threat to stability of transit through Hormuz automatically increases the premium on oil prices, as this route is used by Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE, and Qatar." Accordingly, a short-term increase in oil and petroleum product prices is possible. The LNG market could also react significantly, given Qatar's role as one of the largest gas suppliers to Asia and Europe. Petrochemical and fertilizer industries could experience additional pressure, as the region is a major producer of basic chemicals and ammonia," he said.
However, the analyst believes that if Iran's hypothetical restrictions only apply to US warships, the economic impact would be quite limited. He explained this by the fact that the US merchant fleet is small globally, while a significant portion of the vessels that contribute to the US economy fly "flags of convenience." "Formally, these are not American vessels, even if the ultimate beneficiary or operator is linked to the United States. Presence of American ships in the Persian Gulf is even less significant than globally," the expert concluded.