More than half of the remaining US imports from Russia today come from just two product categories: fertilizers and inorganic chemicals. This information was commented to the RTVI by Dmitry Kuznetsov, Researcher of the International Trade Department at the Gaidar Institute.
According to the USTR for 2024, fertilizers and inorganic chemicals account for approximately 30% and 28% of the volume of imports from Russia and the United States, making these goods key in the structure of bilateral trade despite sanctions restrictions.
According to Dmitry Kuznetsov, maintaining these supplies is due to fundamental characteristics of global markets and limited ability to quickly replace them.
"These are deliberately left loopholes dictated by entirely rational considerations," the expert emphasized.
Dmitry Kuznetsov clarified that nitrogen fertilizer production directly depends on gas prices, meaning Russian products remain competitive. He added that an attempt to abruptly phase out such imports would result in higher costs in US agriculture.
"By restricting fertilizers, the US will only be able to increase costs for its agricultural producers, which will inevitably have an impact in food inflation," Kuznetsov explained, adding that such measures will not be a tough challenge for Russia.
He also highlighted a broader issue: technological inertia in a number of industries. Specifically, in the uranium supply sector, switching suppliers takes time due to complex licensing and certification procedures, while alternative capacity is limited. Therefore, even with political pressure, rejection of Russian resources is gradual.
Dmitry Kuznetsov cited market competition and the specific nature of individual segments, such as the palladium market or pharmaceuticals, as additional factors, where substitution is also associated with high costs and technological limitations.
Ultimately, as the expert emphasizes, the structure of remaining exports reflects not so much political compromises as objective limitations of the global economy, where a rapid severing of ties often proves too costly for the initiators of the restrictions themselves.