Dmitry Evdokimov, Researcher at the Gaidar Institute's Quantitative Analysis of Economic Effects Department, commented for RBC on data showing that the industrial optimism index fell to pandemic lows in early 2026. The expert confirmed the impact of the Bank of Russia's “cooling” policy but pointed to deeper roots of the crisis.
“The Central Bank's ‘cooling’ policy does have an impact, but at the same time it points to deeper structural factors: sanctions restrictions, logistics costs, shrinking markets and technological gaps, labor shortages, and rising production costs, which are putting pressure on civilian industry even with stable government orders,” said Dmitry Evdokimov.
Responding to a question about the unexpected improvement in business expectations against the backdrop of poor current indicators, the economist described this situation as a classic “bad now, but better than expected” scenario. According to him, such a scenario arises when companies “see a chance to change the rules of the game,” counting not only on the Central Bank's easing of rates, but also on the redistribution of state orders, new support programs, or the weakening of external restrictions.
“Expectations are further bolstered by the labor market: companies are trying to retain skilled workers and index salaries because losing talent today will cost more than a temporary dip in demand,” added Dmitry Evdokimov.
The expert sees the intersection of a new investment cycle and the technological localization of “narrow” components as possible drivers for future growth. “The second possible driver is the expansion of sales markets and export opportunities, but it is more dependent on external conditions and, as a rule, manifests itself more quickly in the raw materials sectors than in the civil manufacturing industry,” he concluded.