Dmitry Evdokimov estimated the need for steel for the construction of the NSR fleet at 4.1 million tons

According to the expert, the exact amount of steel required depends on the fleet structure. He noted that the updated strategy for the development of the Russian shipbuilding industry until 2036 does not contain data on the distribution of ship types, so the calculations are based on the assumed structure.

Dmitry Evdokimov estimated that the fleet may consist of 20 Arctic-class container ships, 25 bulk carriers, 30 supply and support vessels, 20 oil tankers, 15 product carriers, 20 gas tankers. The expert also presented detailed calculations of the need for various metals for the construction of different types of ships.

Steel is the main structural material, for Arctic class ships low-temperature high-strength shipbuilding steel resistant to brittle fracture at temperatures as low as -50 °C (e.g. grades EH40, AH36) is used.

• Per large-capacity vessel (tanker, gas carrier, bulk carrier): 20,000–35,000 tons of steel.
• For a medium-sized container or food carrier: 10,000–20,000 tons.
• For supply and auxiliary vessels: 4,000–10,000 tons.

Aluminum and aluminum alloys are used in superstructures, lightweight interior structures, ladders, deck systems for weight reduction and corrosion resistance. Consumption: 100 to 500 tons per vessel.

Stainless steel, bronze, copper are used in the manufacture of piping, heat exchangers, valves, pumps, propeller shafts and propellers. Consumption for one large gas carrier or tanker — up to 500–800 tons of non-ferrous and special metals.

Alloys of nickel, titanium, manganese (as part of alloy steels) are added to hull and power structures to increase strength, resistance to friction, icing, stress and corrosion. Depending on the type of steel, for every million tons of ship steel, there are:

• nickel — 15–25 thousand tons;
• manganese — 25–40 thousand tons;
• chromium, molybdenum, vanadium — in smaller amounts (1–3 thousand tons).

Table 1 presents model estimates of consumption of various metals for the construction of one ship. Actual consumption depends on displacement, type and serialization of the vessel and may differ from the indicated values.

Table 1. Assumptions on metal consumption per vessel

Ita Table 2 presents estimates of the projected material consumption for the construction of a fleet of 130 ships. The updated strategic documents do not contain data on the distribution of ship types in the planned fleet for the Northern Sea Route, so the calculations are based on an assumption about the probable structure of ship type distribution.

Table 2. Metal consumption for the construction of a fleet of 130 ships, based on model assumptions

Table 3 presents the counterfactual metal consumption intervals. Two additional scenarios are considered: the minimum scenario assumes a fleet consisting entirely of vessels with the smallest displacement (multifunctional support vessels), and the maximum scenario assumes a fleet consisting exclusively of vessels with the largest displacement (crude oil tankers or gas tankers). These scenarios are not supposed to be realized in practice but allow setting upper and lower limits of possible metal consumption depending on fleet composition and distribution of vessels by types.

Table 3. Boundaries of the interval of model metal consumption for a fleet of 130 ships, depending on the fleet composition by ship types