Denis Ternovsky, Expert at the Economic Policy Foundation analyzed forecasts for major agricultural crops for 2025–2026. Forecasts from the Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS), developed by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO UN), the International Grains Council (IGS), and the US Foreign Agricultural Service (PS&D FAS USDA), are most often used to analyze global production, consumption, and trade of major grains and oilseeds.
For wheat, Russia's main agricultural export, production forecasts from all analytical centers are positive. Another record harvest of 805–820 million tons is expected, up 0.9–2.3% vs. the previous agricultural year. Along with increased production, an expansion of global trade is also expected, driven by increased demand from Turkey, China, and Iran.
Stability of global grain supply is putting pressure on global prices, which are more than a third below their 2022 peaks. Since wheat production in Russia is highly export-oriented, e.g., more than 50% of the harvest, is exported, global prices are fairly accurately reflected in producer prices. The strengthening ruble and the effect of the export customs duty are pushing grain production profitability close to zero, resulting in a reduction in the area sown for this year's harvest. Producers are shifting toward more profitable crops such as sunflower, soybeans, and rapeseed.