Credit Indebtness Is Growing Faster Than Deposits

In the current year, the increase of retail bank deposits steadily isn't catching up with the increase of credit indebtness. Within 10 months the net household savings have decreased by 691 bln rubles including October decrease by 137 bln rubles.

Larger nominal redistribution of funds from the banks to the people for 10 months of the year was seen only during the crisis 2008 year (845 bln rubles), but at that time it was caused by the outflow of depositors being afraid of the full-scale crisis which was about to start. Just in September-October 2008, the depositors withdrew more than 540 bln rubles from the banks.

In 2012, people started net withdrawing from banks, and this transit took place in the calm atmosphere, there being no signs of depositors' panic. That proves that there's been a change
 in the saving behaviour of the households and shows the transit to the credit consumption pattern which is now much more obvious than during the  retail lending boom in 2006–2008.

On the whole, the inflow of retail deposits into the banks remains at a low level. The increase of the volume of individuals' funds on the banks accounts in October was only 81 bln rubles or 0.6%. The annual growth rate remained at the level of 19.1%. The small and medium-size banks have already been leaders in the rate of deposit base growth for several months in a row. In October, they were able to increase the amount of finance attracted from population by 1.9% or by 67 bln rubles, i.e. taking only 27% of the depositary market, small and medium-size banks provided over 80% of its increase. The monthly growth rate of deposits in 30 banks having the largest assets did not exceed 0.1%.

Rate of people's savings on the banks accounts in October was 3.9% of their monetary incomes, which is less than that for the period since the beginning of the year (4.3%). However, it is too early to speak about the steady decrease trend for the rate of people's savings: in 2012, people still deposited  more cash to their bank accounts than they did during the respective period of 2011.

M.Yu. Khromov – Leading Expert, Center for Structural Research