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Analysis of the system of indicators of Gaidar Institute’s business surveys shows that adverse changes to the demand dynamics have become regular for the Russian industry which is currently maintaining a nearly zero growth in output, reducing prices, controlling successfully finished goods stock, and having hopes for sales increase this year. 

The Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) published on January 31, 2013 the initial estimation of GDP in 2013. Last year GDP, according to the data, grew at a rate of 1.3%, which is even slightly below the latest estimates presented by Minister of Economic Development of Russia A. Ulyukayev who estimated Russian economy’s growth at a 1.4% in 2013.

The ruble has weakened substantially against the US dollar since the beginning of the year, overtaking the highest values since 2009 and a physiological value of Rb 35. The euro reached a new record of Rb 48 on Thursday.

During the Russia-EU summit Russia suggested to launch a dialogue on specific measures and steps towards concluding a free trade zone agreement by 2020. However, First Deputy Prime Minister of Russia Igor Shuvalov stated that the European Union has no plan to shortly began negotiations on a free trade zone between the European Union and the Customs Union Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan on the pretext that such an integration might be complex.

On January 27, the limits of the currency band moved straight 15 kopecks upwards to the marks of Rb 33.65 and Rb 40.65. It is to be noted that in the beginning of the month the lower limit of the currency band was Rb 33.05, while the upper, Rb 40.05. It is to be noted that in January the currency band was adjusted ten times and due to that its limits shifted by 60 kopecks which value largely exceeded the adjustments of the previous months.

According to the data of the Rosstat, in December 2013 the rate of unemployment amounted to 5.6% of the economic activity of households against 5.4% in November. As compared to December 2012, employment decreased by 632,000 persons (0.9%), while the number of unemployed increased by 365,000 persons (9.5%). The trend of growing unemployment became evident fr om the 2nd quarter of 2013.

On Wednesday, January 22, a 2013 report was placed on the Web-site of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation. As stated by the authors of the report, it is not an ordinary departmental annual report which unlike some civil departments the Ministry of Defense has not been published minimum for the past one hundred years, but a report on fulfillment of the Plan of Activities of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation as Regards Implementation of Decrees Nos.597, 601, 603, 604 and 605 of May 7, 2012 of the President of the Russian Federation which was published late in June 2013.

On January 22, 2014, Premier Dmitri Medvedev put forward proposals on development of the sphere of social services, including a transfer of one-third of the state-guaranteed order for social services to the private business and commercialization of the education.

On January 23, 2014, the Central Bank of Russia set the USD/RUR exchange rate at the level of Rb 33.87 for a US dollar and that of the Euro/RUR exchange rate at the level of Rb 45.91 for a euro. The above exchange rate values make up the cost of the bi-currency basket at Rb 39.29 which is the maximum value from March 2009. From the beginning of the year, the cost of the basket grew by more than a ruble (from Rb 38.24 as of January 1, 2014) or 2.75%.

According to the data of the Federal Tax Service, in 2013 revenues fr om the profit tax, VAT and excises to the consolidated budget were explicitly lower than the planned indices (the profit tax was 20% short of the plan, while the VAT and excises were 13.5% and 8.6% short, respectively).

The Gaidar Forum is one of the best annual economic conferences in Russia in which the most prominent economists from Russia and other countries, as well as representatives of the government participate. Actually, during the past five years of its existence the Gaidar Forum has become an excellent site for debates of the expert community and the government.

The Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation has prepared the Concept of Priority Social and Economic Measures in which a conclusion is made that factors behind stagnation of the Russian economy are of an internal nature, namely: growth in enterprises' costs, low labor efficiency and a lack of developed institutes for business and competitive environment.

On January 16, the long-term configurations of the global power industry were discussed at the 5th Gaidar Forum within the frameworks of a plenary discussion: Sustained Development of the Power Industry: How to Make the Desired Thing Available?

Russia has demonstrated of late good dynamics in the Doing Business Rating of the World Bank, said Augusto Lopes-Karlos, Director of the Global Indicators and Analytics Department at the 5th Gaidar Forum on January 16.

On the first day of the Gaidar Forum, Anton Siluanov, Minister of Finance took the floor at the panel discussion. In particular, he touched upon the results of execution of the federal budget in 2013.

On January 15, during the Gaidar Forum German Gref, Head of the Savings Bank declared that the Swiss franc, Norwegian krona and Swedish krona were the most reliable currencies in the world, but Russians should keep savings in rubles.