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25 ноября 2013 г. во Всемирной торговой организации прошло заседание Совета по разрешению споров, на котором по запросу Евросоюза была сформировала панель арбитров по разрешению спора по режиму уплаты утилизационного сбора на автотранспортные средства, взимаемого в Российской Федерации.

As of 25 November, the annual growth rate of inflation amounted to 6.4%. According to the RF CB, inflation is expected to remain at about the current level until the end of the year. 

The battle against tax base dispersion has become the focus of attention not only in Russia, but also G20 and the OECD.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has confirmed its readiness to continue the third round of quantitative easing as planned. Thus, it will continue to buy government bonds and mortgage-backed securities in the amount of $ 85bn per month, and the key interest rate will stay in the interval of 0–0.25% per annum.

Towards the end of 2013, the ongoing discussions as to whether or not the third round of quantitative easing (QE3) was going to be scaled back became more intense. That this issue is the focus of interest is quite understandable because investors are expecting the traditional year-end rally. This is by no means a trite question, as the stock market since the year’s beginning has jumped up 20%, and investors are by no means reluctant to get an additional bonus in the first three weeks of December.

Currently, practically all the members of the US Federal Reserve Board are for the continuation of the quantitative easing policy. The situation in the US national economy is progressively improving. At the same time, unemployment does not decline, and its rate is at present above its target level of 7%. However, the inflation rate is significantly below its target of 2%, which means that the Federal Reserve System (FRS) has a strong potential for promotional measures.

There is yet another argument against the probability of QE3 being halted in the nearest future. Mr Ben S. Bernanke’s second term as Chairman of the Board of Governors of the FRS will end next year, which means that no key decisions are going to be made in December 2013. To do otherwise would have been an incorrect tactic in regard of the next Chairman, to come to the post in January. Of course, the Board of Governors cannot be expected to introduce any cardinal measures at its very first or second meeting, as it will be necessary to sustain the continuity of the FRS policy and positive investor outlooks on the US stock market.

So, no significant signs of an impending halt of QE3 can be noted yet; besides, such a decision would not appear to be well-substantiated even from the point of view of good tactics. My prediction is that, until Q1 2014, no changes can be expected. At the same time, the project will inevitably be curbed, but this will be done publicly and in a well-organized manner.

A.L. Vedev - Director of the Structural Research Center

From November 20, the Central Bank of Russia withdrew the license from the Master-Bank. According to the data the Central Bank of Russia, the Master-Bank granted at least Rb 20bn to individuals and companies affiliated with owners of the bank. Also, the bank was involved in cash withdrawal under suspicious transactions whose total volume amounted to about Rb 200bn. It is to be noted that the Master-Bank made over 100 violations of the law on prevention of money laundering.

On November 20, speaking at the plenary meeting of the State Duma E. Nabiullina, Chairman of the Central Bank of Russia said that slowdown of economic growth rates in Russia was of a structural nature. E. Nabiullina noted that a decrease in the growth rates for six quarters running resulted in the fact that growth of 1.5%-2% instead of that of 5%-6% was becoming a new norm.

From the beginning of 2013, the monetary base in broad terms decreased by Rb 901bn, including Rb 165bn in October.

On November 13, 2013, Alexei Ulyukaev, the Minister of Economic Development of the Russian Federation said that in 2013 GDP growth may happen to be below the forecasted 1.8%. Alexei Ulyukaev did not rule out that on the basis of the results of the year economic growth would amount to 1.5%-1.6%.

At the meeting with heads of departments of constitutional and legal disciplines of higher educational establishments of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation said for the first time that progressive scale of the individual income tax was "more just" as compared to the single tax rate of 13%.

On November 8, the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia approved new amendments to the draft guidelines for the monetary policy till 2016.

On November 7, 2013, the European Central Bank (ECB) lowered their discount rate for the first time in half a year, setting it at 0.25%. The previous discount rate was 0.5%.

Based on the data of the Russian Ministry of Economic Development, the "economic growth rate from 2013-2030 will be 50% lower than proposed in the spring - an average of 2.8% versus 4.3% - and will lag behind the economy worldwide. By 2030, Russia's share of the global GDP will decrease to 3.4%, from 4% in 2012".

After the statement by Alexei Miller, Head of the Gasprom as regards a possible transfer to the system of prepayment for next Russian gas supplies if Ukraine fails in the near future to pay the debt in the amount of $882m for gas supplies in August 2013, repayment of the debt of the NAK Naftogas Ukraina to the Gasprom started in the beginning of November.

As demonstrated by the business opinion surveys carried out by the Gaidar Institute, October saw no significant changes either in the movement of the demand index, or in the level of output in Russian industry.

A summit of the Eastern Partnership is scheduled to be held at the end of November 2013 in Vilnius, during which after prolonged discussions Ukraine plans to sign an agreement with the EC regarding association and a free trade zone.

The initial results for September based on the market questionnaires of the Gaidar Institute are looking rather pessimistic. The trend in supply and demand has not undergone any fundamental modification, a fact which has disappointed companies and led to a lowering of expectations in demand and a growth in inventory.