Issue No. 1 of the quarterly analytical journal Cbonds Review for 2026 features an article by Evgeniy Goryunov, Head of Monetary Policy Department, entitled The Future of US Public Debt. The expert addresses the topic of US public debt in the context of recent political events and official forecasts that are about to be published.
"It is difficult to say anything fundamentally new about US public debt. We know that it is large, we know that it is growing, and we know that this process has been going on for more than a decade. Nevertheless, it is necessary to return to this topic periodically, recording the current state of affairs and assessing the prospects in light of new developments.
In the near future, the US Congressional Budget Office will publish updated forecasts of budgetary indicators. The last published forecast assumed that the national debt would grow “linearly” until 2036, with no signs of stabilization, and it is safe to say that the new version will not be any better. How bad is it? Will quantity turn into quality? The issue is made even more relevant by the eccentric behavior of the current US President Donald Trump, who seems to be deliberately seeking to destroy confidence in the dollar by persecuting the head of the Federal Reserve and introducing unthinkable import duties, and who wants to destroy the dollar. Trump, who seems to be deliberately seeking to undermine confidence in the dollar by persecuting the head of the Federal Reserve and introducing unthinkable import duties and wants to weaken budgetary stability by extending tax breaks as part of The One Big Beautiful Bill."
The full text of the article The Future of US Public Debt is available at link.