Antonina Levashenko, Head of International Best Practices Analysis Department at the Gaidar Institute, expressed her opinion on the likely significant increase in global aluminum prices in a comment for Prime. According to her, the cost of the metal could reach $3,000 per ton as early as next year if new production capacities are not introduced.
The expert noted that the continuing production deficit is a key factor putting pressure on prices. "In the long term, if no new aluminum production capacity is introduced worldwide, the price will most likely continue to rise. For example, at the 14th annual AICE 2025 SMM aluminum industry conference in China in October, it was stated that by 2025, global capacity would need to reach 45 million tons, with new aluminum production capacity reaching about 6 million tons by the end of the year," said Antonina Levashenko.
"On the other hand, the deficit may decrease thanks to the commissioning of new capacities and projects currently being developed in India and Indonesia, which will have a decisive impact on global supplies. However, in 2025, for example, many projects in Indonesia were suspended, commissioning was hampered, for example, in five Indonesian processing projects, funding was limited, and in one, the mining permit was revoked. In addition, Chinese plants face regulatory barriers related to capacity limits on aluminum production," the expert noted.
"In other words, further declines and recoveries in world market prices will depend on an increase in global supply, the introduction of new capacity, and the reduction of barriers, which depends on the easing of pressure on plants from Chinese regulators (including financing for plant modernization to reduce carbon consumption), attracting investors to aluminum production projects in India and Indonesia, removing regulatory barriers to obtaining permits by investors in Indonesia, and, in the long term, lifting Western sanctions on Russian aluminum imports," Antonina Levashenko concluded.