Antonina Levashenko, Head of International Best Practices Analysis Department at the Gaidar Institute, in a commentary for Izvestia assessed the reasons for reduction in federal oil and gas revenues and outlined the challenges facing the Russian industry in the coming years.
According to the expert, the reduction in revenues is due to a number of factors. "According to Argus Media, by November, prices for supplies to India had fallen by $0.90 (the lowest since 2023), and export volumes to Turkey fell by 27% month-on-month in September," explained Antonina Levashenko, noting that Russian supplies faced restrictions this fall, including new price caps.
The expert also believes that future sanctions pose serious risks. "According to the Ministry of Finance, there are risks of further reduction in Russia’s revenues, primarily due to the EU ban on imports of petroleum products derived from Russian oil (imported through third countries, such as Turkey and India), which will take effect in 2026," she stated.
Prices are also under pressure due to slowing demand growth and growing supply surplus, driven by other countries rather than Russia. Antonina Levashenko also refers to forecasts from international companies related to further decline in global oil prices by 3-5% by 2030.
The expert believes that in this environment Russia needs measures to maintain the industry's competitiveness, including investments in the technological modernization of refineries, the development of new technologies, and the opening of new logistics seaports. "It can be predicted that in the 2030s, revenue will come from Russian LNG supplies, in particular because it will be in demand as a more environmentally friendly feedstock," concluded Antonina Levashenko.