Antonina Levashenko, head of the Best International Practices Analysis Department at the Gaidar Institute, noted in a comment for «Vzglyad» that, despite pressure from the US, the European Union does not plan to abruptly abandon Russian oil supplies.
"Over the summer of 2025, the EU took a number of measures to reduce Russian oil supplies.
Firstly, the EU's 18th package of sanctions, adopted in July, prohibits the import of petroleum products made from Russian crude oil that are processed abroad from January 21, 2026. This means a ban on the re-export of Russian petroleum products from India and Turkey to the EU.
Secondly, the EU is lowering the price cap on Russian crude oil from $60 per barrel to $47.60 per barrel. Accordingly, financial institutions are also prohibited from facilitating trade in Russian crude oil if it is not below the cap.
Thirdly, in June 2025, the EU amended Regulation 2017/1938 on the further phasing out of Russian crude oil and petroleum products. Article 12 of this Regulation requires Hungary and Slovakia to develop plans for gradual phase-out of oil imports with a view to complete elimination by the end of 2027. The plans must include specific measures for the phase-out by that date," said Antonina Levashenko.
According to the expert, the EU is introducing restrictions gradually, which is due to the need to secure minimum energy reserves.
"At the same time, after the final departure of the European market, Russia and re-exporters India and Turkey will still have growth in oil demand in the developing markets of the Asia-Pacific region and Africa. The International Energy Agency forecasts consumption growth in this region of 4.2 million barrels per day in the period 2023-2030. And the largest growth in global oil consumption from 2023 to 2024 has already been observed in Bangladesh, Vietnam, Singapore, and Sri Lanka," noted Antonina Levashenko.