Antonina Levashenko, Head of International Best Practices Analysis Department at the Gaidar Institute, analyzed the current situation on the oil market in a commentary for Nezavisimaya Gazeta. According to her assessment, prices are influenced by a combination of short-term and long-term factors.
The expert linked the short-term rise in prices to geopolitical tensions: "The rise in oil prices in the last couple of days was caused by a decline in supplies from Venezuela amid the escalating conflict with the US and tankers being stuck at sea, which led buyers to demand discounts and changes in spot contracts. Discounts on Venezuelan Merey oil supplied to China increased by $6 per barrel.“
Meanwhile, Antonina Levashenko drew attention to the continuing long-term downward trend: “All this is due to large volumes of production worldwide in 2025. The price in 2026 is expected to continue to decline. For example, Brent crude oil may fall to $55. Such prices may remain until the end of 2026," the expert predicted.
Referring to Russian oil, the expert said: "In November 2025, the average price of Russian oil had already fallen by 6% over the month, to $55. It can be predicted that in Russia, the price will continue to decline in 2026 due to the maintenance of legally approved price limits for Russian oil in the US and European countries, a reduction in volume due to sanctions-related supplies (including secondary US sanctions), and the risk that new US sanctions will be introduced." She also mentioned the possible impact of a new supply tracking mechanism launched by Indian companies.