Antonina Levashenko on the prospects for declining demand for oil and reorientation of Russian exports

According to the expert,"leadership in the production and sale of electric vehicles allowed China (60% of global sales in 2023, according to IEA data) to systematically reduce oil demand by 1.2 mln barrels per day since 2019 (by 1–2% per year), and according to IEA forecasts, by 2030 the demand will decrease by another 2.5 mln barrels per day. According to forecasts, by 2030, almost every third car on China’s roads will be electric. That is why the BP predicts in its report that China will reach its tops on oil consumption for fuel in 2030, and the IEA predicts that they will do so as early as 2025."

Antonina Levashenko highlighted: "In the global context it manifests a trend for shift in the declining demand for oil, since China in the 2000–2020s was one of the key world consumers (19% of global demand according to IEA), including the main consumer of Russian oil (in those years, demand grew every year by 6%, while now it is declining).In this respect, in 2025–2030, China’s demand for Russian oil will still be supported by a large number of petrochemical plants processing polymers and synthetic fibers. However, then, it will decrease; the China’s national goal of the 14th Five-Year Plan is to significantly reduce oil consumption by 2030."

The expert believes that despite the decline in demand from China, "the loss of Chinese imports for Russia will be restored in the period up to 2050 due to growing number of developing countries. India will remain the key leader in supplies thanks to GDP growth and industrialization. In Africa, demand for all oil products will grow by about 2% per year, which will be facilitated by growing GDP and population. In this regard, it is worth expecting that oil exports from Russia in 2030–2050 will be almost completely reoriented to Asia-Pacific countries (for example, to Vietnam), as well as countries in Africa and Latin America (for example, to Brazil)."