Antonina Levashenko, Head of the International Best Practice Analysis Department at the Gaidar Institute, commented for TASS on the situation at the global oil market amid the escalating conflict in the Middle East. The expert warned that strategic reserves of the G7 countries will not compensate for the loss of the Middle Eastern oil.
"No compensatory measures in terms of releasing G7 reserves will be able to quickly replace a third of global production from the Middle East if the conflict does not end. According to the Energy Institute, it accounted for 31% of global production in 2025," said Antonina Levashenko.
The expert said that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, a shipping corridor through which 34% of global oil exports passed in 2025, is particularly alarming. Antonina Levashenko noted that the Strait had never seen virtually zero traffic before.
"According to data from the Joint Maritime Information Centre, in March, average traffic through the Strait fell from 138 vessels per day to just 1-2 transit vessels, which, incidentally, are not tankers, meaning oil is no longer being transported through this Strait," she emphasized.
The expert focused on the devastating impact of the military operation on the region's oil infrastructure. In addition to the shutdown of production in Iran, numerous incidents have been recorded: "These include accidents caused by drones at refineries, which, for example, forced the shutdown of the only refinery in Bahrain; production cuts due to a lack of storage space, as crude oil accumulates and there's nowhere to transport it due to the closure of the Strait; while in Iran, oil production has almost completely ceased."
According to Antonina Levashenko, if the infrastructure of the Middle East countries suffers severe damage, then in just a few months the world will face persistently high fuel prices, over $100, followed by rising global prices for gasoline, electricity, and the like.