Global demand for coal is unlikely to grow significantly in the long term, despite the current favorable market conditions. This forecast was provided for Izvestia by Antonina Levashenko, Head of International Best Practices Analysis Department at the Gaidar Institute.
According to her, global energy trends continue to shift toward renewable sources and gas, while coal is increasingly viewed as a reserve fuel.
“In the long term, global demand for coal is unlikely to grow significantly, as the energy transition, renewable energy, and gas remain on the agenda,” Antonina Levashenko noted.
She pointed out that major economies are already factoring in a reduction in coal’s role in their strategies. In particular, EU countries plan to phase out coal-fired power by 2030–2040, while China’s new five-year plan indicates that fossil fuel-based power generation will peak and that the country intends to increase the share of non-fossil fuel sources.
At the same time, no major changes in coal consumption are expected within Russia in the coming years: the country continues to develop the industry as part of its strategy through 2035. However, the situation in foreign markets will change.
“Due to the overall decline in demand, Russia will have to build new export supply chains—no longer just to China and India, but, for example, to ASEAN countries and African nations. It is precisely this reorientation of exports that will be the key factor in maintaining the stability of the coal industry amid the global energy transition,” concluded Antonina Levashenko.