Anton Beloglazov, Head of Evidence-Based Economics Department at the Gaidar Institute, commented for Forbes on NRU HSE study. According to this estimate, the total contribution of migrants to Moscow's economy amounts to 23-25% of the gross regional product. The expert noted that the methodology used by the authors, while "quite feasible," has an important limitation.
"The approach is clear: based on the number of different categories of workers and their average salaries, the gross regional product and other indicators are distributed proportionally across these categories," explained Anton Beloglazov. However, in his opinion, the main methodological premise is that labor productivity is proportional to wages within each industry and may distort the true picture.
The expert explained that the link between pay and productivity is often broken: migrants often get less while producing comparable or greater output, for example, in construction or courier services. "Therefore, results reflect the distribution of income among worker groups rather than their actual productive contribution," Anton Beloglazov concluded.