Andrey Polbin Takes Part in the Efimov Readings

On October 4, at the plenary discussion ‘Macroeconomic Projection Instruments’ held in the framework of the Efimov Readings, Andrey Polbin delivered his presentation titled ‘Approaches to Making Macroeconomic Projections in Conditions of Structural Shifts’.

In his presentation, Mr. Polbin outlined the methodological issues involved in building and assessing the econometric models intended for structural analysis and economic projections in conditions of structural shifts. The presentation explored the structural shifts observed in the rate of long-term economic growth in the RF, and the cross-correlation between macroeconomic variables. Mr. Polbin described some modifications of the vector autoregression model, the error correction mode, the unobserved components model, and the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, which were capable to adjust to the said structural shifts.

The discussion that followed the presentation centered around issues associated with building economic projections adjusted for the planned VAT alterations, to be introduced from 2019 onwards, and the impact of economic sanctions.

The presentation materials can be viewed here