According to Anastasia Levchenko, Researcher of the Industrial Organization and Infrastructure Economics Department at the Gaidar Institute, the escalation of the conflict in the Persian Gulf could result in a decline in global oil demand and trigger a new economic crisis. She said it in a commentary for Izvestia.
The expert believes that current situation differs from previous crises in the scale of the destruction: it involves not only supply disruptions but also the disruption of key energy infrastructure. This reduces the chances of export recovery even if the situation stabilizes.
"To trigger a demand-destroying mechanism similar to that of 2007-2008, the average annual oil price in 2026 must reach $155 per barrel. If the conflict and the Strait blockade continue, prices could temporarily exceed $200, which could lead to a global recession," Anastasia Levchenko emphasized.
She also noted that, unlike previous oil shocks, today's energy market is adapting more quickly thanks to technological alternatives. Coal generation is already growing, and in the long term, demand pressure will increase due to the development of electric vehicles.
According to Anastasia Levchenko, the market could face a paradoxical situation: a short-term price increase due to geopolitics will be combined with a sustained decline in demand, making the recovery in oil prices unstable.