Anastasia Levchenko, Researcher at Industrial Organization and Infrastructure Economics Department of the Gaidar Institute, commented for TASS on Ukraine's decision to suspend crude oil transit and Slovakia's subsequent threats to cut off electricity supplies. In her analysis, the expert concluded that the situation surrounding the pipeline had moved from hidden contradictions to an acute phase.
According to Anastasia Levchenko, even the emergency measures taken by Slovakia and Hungary are not capable of radically changing the situation. Although Slovakia has already declared a crisis situation and begun to use state reserves (up to 250,000 tons for the Slovnaft refinery), and Hungary is using an alternative route through Croatia, this does not eliminate the root of the problem. “Both countries have strategic reserves for about 90 days, but this is only a temporary safety cushion, not a way out of the situation,” the expert explained.
In addition, the search for alternative routes will hit the region's economy. “The forced reorientation to the Croatian route will increase logistics costs for MOL and Slovnaft, which reduces the reliability of supplies compared to direct pipeline transit,” the expert concluded.