Anastasia Levchenko, Researcher of the Industrial Organization and Infrastructure Economics Department at the Gaidar Institute, assessed for Izvestia the April index of the business climate.
She believes, the spring optimism of businesses is not yet supported by current results.
"Growth of the April index is primarily due to improved manager expectations, while their assessments of the current situation remain rather restrained, and in some industries, even negative," Anastasia Levchenko explained.
She identified three main reasons for the improved expectations. The first is signals of a possible easing of the Central Bank's monetary policy. The second is hope for stabilization of the tax system. Since January 1, 2026, the basic VAT rate increased from 20% to 22%. According to Anastasia Levchenko, Q1 was marked by adaptation to the new realities, and now businesses have gained certainty, albeit in terms of a higher tax burden.
According to the expert, the gap between expectations and reality remains abnormally wide. Business climate indicators and current investment activity are at their lowest levels in more than a year.
"Companies are abandoning development plans due to uncertainty about future revenues. All of this makes the restoration of economic growth a distant prospect," concluded Anastasia Levchenko.