By 2025, competition in the Russian air transportation market under the ongoing sanctions pressure acquired a number of specific features, said
Bankruptcies and consolidation have become an inevitable outcome of the sanctions shock, which has hiked costs and shrunk the market for domestic airlines. The market became less diverse, more monopolized and dependent on government support and regulatory decisions.
From more than 50 airlines with an air operator certificate until 2022, less than 15 will be actively flying by
By 2025, competition on available international destinations (Turkey, UAE, Thailand, China, India, CIS, Serbia) has become extremely fierce due to market contraction and a limited number of “safe” routes. For popular flights (Moscow — Antalya, Moscow — Dubai, Moscow — Yerevan) 5–7 Russian airlines sell tickets simultaneously. Despite the growth of tourism to “friendly” countries, the total volume of demand does not cover the losses from the closure of Europe and the USA for domestic air carriers, which creates an oversupply on the main available destinations. Air carriers' strategies include active use of dynamic pricing,
Russian carriers compete with foreign airlines, which have such competitive advantages as modern and reliable fleets and global route networks. For example, Russian airlines serve 55–60% of routes from Russia to Turkey, while Turkish Airlines and Pegasus serve 40–45%. In 2021, the ratio was 75% to 25%.
In 2025, technological and resource constraints remain the main challenge for the Russian aviation industry under sanctions. The import substitution program and the creation of leasing alternatives are developing, but with a serious lag behind plans. The average age of the active fleet has increased from 10.1 years in 2021 to 14.3 years in 2025. The number of airplanes older than 15 years is growing. They are estimated to account for about 35% of the fleet in 2025. Supplies of domestic aircraft are subject to a number of limitations relating to dependence on imported components, difficulty in certifying modifications, high production costs, and outdated aerodynamics.
Production of the Russian
In the coming years (2026–2030), the Russian air transportation market will develop under deep structural constraints associated with sanctions pressure and dependence on imports. The main trend is consolidation and strengthening of the role of the state while formally preserving competition between several large groups. The prospects for restoring healthy competition depend directly on the success of the import substitution program (especially
According to Anastasia Levchenko, the following measures are necessary to maintain healthy competition between air carriers.
Acceleration of import substitution with a focus on efficiency:
- priority funding for localization of critical systems of
MS-21 /SSJ-NEW (engines, avionics); - creation of incentives to reduce the cost of ownership and operation of domestic aircraft;
- support for the creation of competitive service centers.
Reform of the state support and regulation system:
- transparent and
non-discriminatory distribution of subsidies (especially regional subsidies), airport slots, and licenses for international flights — based on competitive procedures; - reduction of administrative burden: simplification of certification and approval procedures.
Infrastructure and human resources development:
- Modernization of regional airports;
- State programs for training pilots and aircraft technicians (especially for
MS-21 /SSJ-NEW ); - Support for the development of
High-Speed Railways (HSR) as a complement to, rather than a complete substitute for, aviation.
Creating conditions for private investment:
- Reducing the cost of leasing through Rosleasing and supporting the creation of private leasing companies;
- Guarantees of investment protection under sanctions;
- Tax incentives for airlines operating domestic aircraft.