Anastasia Levchenko, Researcher of the Industrial Organization and Infrastructure Economics Department, presented findings of econometric modeling conducted by the Gaidar Institute based on 34.4 mn observations from February through November 2025.
At the height of the 2026 summer season, the Russian air travel market exhibited price dynamics that were counterintuitive but entirely explainable from the perspective of economic theory. Contrary to expectations, flights between major tourist cities in Russia in July were, on average, 9–15% cheaper than a year earlier. The average price of a ticket without checked baggage fell by 12.4% (from Rb13,112 to Rb11,482), and with checked baggage, by 9.2%. However, by August, this trend had completely dried up: the average price jumped by 17%, and the y/y gap compared to 2025 narrowed from 12.4% to a symbolic 1.4%.
What lies behind this wave-like pattern? The study’s findings allow us to identify three key factors.
The main factor is the temporal patterns of demand. Our model confirms the existence of a statistically significant U-shaped price trajectory: as the departure date approaches, fares first decline, reaching a low point approximately 62 days before departure, and then begin to rise. At the same time, holidays and school breaks add an average of about 1.2% to the price—airlines isolate and monetize periods of inelastic demand spikes. Weekday trends are also telling: the lowest fares are on Tuesdays and Wednesdays (7.8–8.5% lower than on weekends), while Fridays and Sundays see price premiums due to the concentration of business and leisure travel.
The second factor is the structure of competition. An interesting transformation is taking place here. The share of foreign airlines on international routes has risen to 47%, up from 25% in 2019. This allows them to offer Russians more direct flights and keep price increases in check: the average fare on many international routes has remained at last year’s level or has even decreased. Russian airlines are forced to adopt a more competitive pricing strategy, likely due to ongoing competition with foreign airlines on approved routes. Meanwhile, they need to offset high costs by generating profits from the domestic market.
The behavior of low-cost carriers deserves special attention. The direct effect of their presence is a price reduction averaging 13% compared to traditional carriers. On tourist routes, the aggregate discount reaches 14%, and the lowest point of the U-shaped curve shifts to 29 days before departure—the more compressed and gradual trend reflects a focus on flight load factors and targeting other consumer segments.
The third factor is government subsidies. The presence of subsidies for an airline is associated with an average price reduction of 9.1%, and on routes where all segments are operated by a single carrier, the reduction is 16.2%. Moreover, subsidies not only lower average prices but also alter the dynamic pricing mechanism itself: the price trough shifts to the 50th day, and the U-shaped curve becomes flatter. This demonstrates the dual effect of the subsidy—increasing the affordability of air travel and making fares more predictable for consumers.
Thus, the summer dynamics of 2026 are the natural result of the interaction of three forces: peak demand, which airlines segment through time-based price discrimination; intensifying competition from foreign carriers, which restrains price growth; and government subsidies, which smooth out the amplitude of fluctuations. The market is becoming more flexible and polarized: on some routes, prices are soaring by 60–67%, while on others, they are falling by 15–30%. And there is a logic to this polarization that can be measured, understood, and, if necessary, corrected through well-calibrated regulatory decisions.