Forbes reviewed the findings of a study by the Gaidar Institute’s Industrial Organization and Infrastructure Economics Department on algorithmic pricing on marketplaces and in the air travel market.
The spread of algorithmic and dynamic pricing in the digital economy is fundamentally changing the rules of the game for businesses and consumers. The Gaidar Institute’s study showed that such technologies simultaneously intensify competition and create risks of hidden price coordination, requiring new approaches to regulation.
“Algorithmic pricing cannot be unequivocally assessed as a benefit or a threat. It reinforces existing market mechanisms, both competitive and potentially anti-competitive. Therefore, the key task is to learn how to identify risks and manage them without excessive intervention,” noted one of the project’s authors, Anastasia Levchenko, Researcher at the Gaidar Institute’s Industrial Organization and Infrastructure Economics Department.
The study focused on the two segments most sensitive to automation: marketplaces and the passenger air transport market. To analyze online commerce, the researchers used data from Russia’s largest platform, Wildberries, recording price changes every three hours over several months. This approach made it possible to identify sellers who likely use algorithms: they are distinguished by an extremely high frequency of price revisions.
It turned out that the share of such sellers varies from 4% to 18% depending on the product category. However, the impact of algorithms on prices proved to be mixed. In the household chemicals segment, they are associated with a price increase of approximately 21%, which may indicate implicit coordination of strategies among sellers. At the same time, the opposite effect is observed in the electronics category: prices among algorithmic sellers are on average 61% lower, indicating more aggressive price competition. In the apparel segment, the effect depends on market conditions: when prices are stable, algorithms help keep them in check, and when volatility is high, they contribute to price increases.
Analysis of the air travel market confirmed that dynamic pricing here is complex and multifaceted. Based on data from the Yandex. Travel aggregator, covering tens of millions of observations, it was found that ticket prices follow a U-shaped trajectory and reach their lowest point on average 62 days before departure.
“Institutional factors also have a significant impact: government subsidies reduce ticket prices by approximately 9% and make price dynamics more predictable, while competition on the route—especially from low-cost carriers—further restrains price growth, as their fares are on average 13–15% lower,” said one of the project’s authors, Maria Goronovich, Junior Researcher at the Gaidar Institute’s Industrial Organization and Infrastructure Economics Department.
At the same time, signs of price discrimination have been observed. Ticket prices are higher on tourist and international routes, as well as in regions with higher levels of economic development and smaller populations. This indicates that the algorithms take into account the affordability of demand and the characteristics of routes, adapting prices to specific consumer groups.
The practical value of the study lies in the fact that it offers a more targeted approach to price regulation. Instead of blanket bans, the authors propose monitoring specific risks: for example, identifying sellers who use algorithms and noting situations where prices among different players begin to change in sync. For the aviation market, the study suggests monitoring sharp price deviations and the effectiveness of subsidies.
Overall, the study shows that algorithms have already become an important part of the economy: they influence not only price levels but also competition. Therefore, it is important not to restrict their development but to establish effective oversight that protects consumers while preserving the benefits of new technologies.