Alexey Vedev, Leading Researcher, Financial Sector Department at the Gaidar Institute, expressed concern in a comment for RBC Pro about high risks of corporate bankruptcies.
The expert noted that corporate bankruptcies amid world-record real interest rates of 10–11% are indeed likely this year. Risks of defaults are high enough, but what is more important is not the scale of default, but the fact of its fulfillment. Companies having fairly high debts that need to be serviced are the most at risk.
Even a few defaults of large and medium-sized companies can destabilize the entire market, especially bonds, says Alexey Vedev. «When, for example, OFZs are worth around 18–20% per annum for a year or two, then, of course, the money market and the bond market are flourishing. It is clear that most of the savings rush there, therefore the very fact of defaults, I think, will cause panic in the market. This is quite a dangerous thing," the expert emphasized.
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