Alexey Vedev, Senior Researcher at the Financial Sector Department of the Gaidar Institute, spoke to “MK” about the reasons behind the ruble's weakness in August. According to the economist, the key factor was the Ministry of Finance’s increased purchases of foreign currency under the budget rule, while the impact of export revenues and other factors is less significant today.
Alexey Vedev explained that August is indeed considered a challenging month for the ruble, but the current exchange rate dynamics are primarily driven by economic factors rather than psychological or historical ones. According to him, the Ministry of Finance’s foreign currency purchases under the budget rule are currently having a decisive impact on the currency market.
“It is true that, historically, August has often been a difficult month for the ruble; however, today it is not seasonal factors but fiscal policy that plays the main role. An exchange rate of around 70 rubles per dollar does not align with current fiscal targets, so the increase in foreign currency purchases under the budget rule is putting significant pressure on the ruble. At the same time, the fundamental situation looks different: Russia has maintained a current account surplus for many years, which means that, from the perspective of market factors, the conditions for a stronger ruble remain in place. The structure of the foreign exchange market, where the exchange rate is effectively determined by the cross-rate against the yuan, adds another layer of complexity. This is precisely why the ruble’s current dynamics are largely driven by domestic mechanisms rather than changes in oil prices or the geopolitical situation,” explained Alexey Vedev.