Alexey Vedev Leading Researcher, Financial Sector Department at the Gaidar Institute, took part in the RBC program ”The Day. Essentials”, where he commented on current economic trends and new sanctions agenda.
The expert noted the low likelihood of full-scale EU sanctions against China, calling the idea "an absolutely fool’s errand" due to lack of consensus within the European Union.
Alexey Vedev paid special attention to the state of Russian business. He confirmed that sanctions pressure remains, while business perceptions have changed. Sanction-related concerns have faded into the background, giving way to more pressing issues: declining demand, payment challenges and logistics.
The expert noted that while in 2024 companies were operating at maximum capacity, working three shifts and filling vacant niches, the situation has now changed. Many large companies are switching to a four-day workweek due to sales issues. He believes that sanctions, which previously determined business development due to withdrawal of foreign companies, have now been reversed. The expert assumes that monetary policy is becoming the primary focus.
Commenting on the Central Bank's latest decision to lower the key rate, Alexey Vedev expressed the opinion that fighting inflation solely through monetary measures is erroneous. "As global experience shows, there are completely different combating measures, i.e. primarily, combating cartels agreements, commodity interventions and regulating prices on socially important goods," he concluded.