Alexey Vedev Leading Researcher, Financial Sector Department at the Gaidar Institutestated in a commentary for «Izvestia» that inflation trend in Russia remains downward. He predicted its slowdown to around 5% in 2026.
“By the end of 2025, inflation will be around 7%, possibly slightly lower. In 2026, I believe, it will be around 5%. The decline in inflation is primarily due to the dominance of food inflation this year, while consumer demand growth will begin to slow right away and continue next year. This is due to wage increases being more moderate. Food inflation is cyclical, and there is reason to believe that, thanks in part to price controls on essential goods, inflation will continue to decline. Therefore, I believe the trend toward slowing inflation is quite sustainable,” the expert explained.
Alexey Vedev also shared his expectations for the ruble exchange rate: “This year, I predicted a stable ruble exchange rate or even some strengthening. This is due to several factors. First, a positive current account balance, which supports the stabilization or strengthening of the ruble. Second, interest rate arbitrage: extremely high bond rates attract capital, including from unfriendly countries, and increase demand for the ruble. Third, people show less demand for foreign currency due to risks associated with frozen accounts and possible currency exchange restrictions for Russian citizens. Fourth, the Ministry of Finance is purchasing smaller amounts of foreign currency this year, thereby reducing pressure on the ruble. All these factors have resulted in the exchange rate stabilization in the range of Rb 75-82 per US dollar, and I think this range will remain in place next year,” the expert noted.
Furthermore, Alexey Vedev suggested that the Central Bank of Russia's key rate will remain unchanged or be reduced by 0.5% on December 19 “This is a symbolic change that will have no significant impact on the situation. Next year, the key rate reduction, in my opinion, will also be minor. This will restrain the growth rate of the Russian economy,” the expert concluded.