Alexey Vedev, Doctor of Economic Sciences and Senior Researcher at the Gaidar Institute’s Financial Research Department, stated in a conversation with Moskovsky Komsomolets that, despite the deterioration of several economic indicators, the Bank of Russia will most likely maintain a cautious approach to easing monetary policy.
Macroeconomic data for January–April 2026 point to a noticeable slowdown in economic activity. According to Dr. Vedev, Russian companies are facing a deterioration in their financial position, and investment activity has declined significantly. These factors are fueling expectations of a faster cut in the key rate by the Bank of Russia.
However, the expert notes that the regulator must take into account the risks of accelerating inflation, so it is not yet worth counting on a sharp easing of monetary policy.
“The government has released the macroeconomic results for January–April, and they look quite alarming. There has been a deterioration in the financial condition of enterprises and a significant decline in investment. Meanwhile, the Bank of Russia is unlikely to cut rates sharply, as factors capable of accelerating inflation remain, including the expected weakening of the ruble, rising utility rates, and high levels of budget spending,” summarized Alexei Vedev.