Alexey Vedev, Leading Researcher of the Financial Sector Department at the Gaidar Institute, shared his forecast regarding the decision of the Bank of Russi on the key rate to be taken at the meeting on September 12, 2025. The expert expects mitigation of monetary policy, but does exclude maintaining the current level.
“I expect the Bank of Russia to cut the key rate by 100 b.p. to 17% on September 12, 2025. On the one hand, the Russian economy has sharply reduced its growth rate, which evidenced 4.3% last year, to 1% and below this year. Inflation is also slowing down. On the other hand, the Central Bank's authorities fear that inflation will accelerate in Q4 2025, and, following their arguments, I do not exclude that the rate may not change, which will go against the opinion of the government, business and experts," said Alexey Vedev.